Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Aliens

Only 13 developers shipped an Alien Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starship Troopers: Extermination, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $26M, ×17852 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $41k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $355k (exactly $355,382)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $26,742,683)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 33
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 36,248 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $26M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 2019 · $17M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M EARTH DEFENSE FORCE: IRON RAIN 2019 · $2.3M Down with the Ship 2026 · EA · $367k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 older $59.99 9,375 93% 281k $17M (exactly $16,872,188) SANDLOT
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE: IRON RAIN older $59.99 1,256 58% 38k $2.3M (exactly $2,260,423) YUKE'S
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Aliens vs. Ghosts · EA older $7.49 593 89% 18k $133k (exactly $133,247) Sayan
Space Food Truck older $9.99 216 71% 6.5k $65k (exactly $64,735) One Man Left Studios
Gemini Wars older $9.99 141 32% 4.2k $42k (exactly $42,258) Camel 101
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Cosmic Carnage $4.49 37 94% 1.1k $5.0k (exactly $4,984) LionSword
Hyperspace Striker · EA $9.99 8 75% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) DAEMONTECH
Forsaken Facilities $0.99 9 22% 270 $267 (exactly $267) ownbebe, TBeanster
Mecha Survivors $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Lowie Games SpA
Slaughtra $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Iconoclast Operations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.