Should I ship an Alien FPS?
FPS + Aliens
Of 89 developers who shipped an Alien FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×1762 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 182 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,034) |
| Top 5% | $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 89 |
| Released games | 358 |
| Announced | 182 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 103,188 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M 
Half-Life: Alyx 2020 · $167M 
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II 2020 · $105M 
Black Mesa 2020 · $81M 
Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Halo: The Master Chief Collection | older | $39.99 | 239,603 92% | 7.2M | $287M (exactly $287,451,719) | 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive) |
| | Half-Life: Alyx | older | $59.99 | 93,001 98% | 2.8M | $167M (exactly $167,373,900) | Valve |
| | STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II | older | $39.99 | 87,494 88% | 2.6M | $105M (exactly $104,966,552) | DICE |
| | Black Mesa | older | $19.99 | 134,753 94% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,811,374) | Crowbar Collective |
| | Half-Life 2 | older | $9.99 | 202,782 97% | 6.1M | $61M (exactly $60,773,765) | Valve |
 | Alien: Isolation | older | $39.99 | 48,591 92% | 1.5M | $58M (exactly $58,294,623) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Half-Life | older | $9.99 | 117,320 96% | 3.5M | $35M (exactly $35,160,804) | Valve |
 | Prey | older | $29.99 | 37,759 90% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $33,971,772) | Arkane Studios |
 | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
 | Halo: Campaign Evolved | $49.99 | 12,512 61% | 375k | $19M (exactly $18,764,246) | Halo Studios | |
 | Species: Unknown | · EA | $9.99 | 9,437 94% | 283k | $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) | WanadevStudio |
 | High On Life 2 | $39.99 | 2,200 71% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) | Squanch Games, Inc. | |
 | Alien: Rogue Incursion VR | $39.99 | 1,340 70% | 40k | $1.6M (exactly $1,607,598) | Survios | |
 | Level Zero: Extraction | $19.99 | 2,446 50% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) | Doghowl Games | |
 | The Thing: Remastered | $29.99 | 1,203 89% | 36k | $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) | Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks | |
 | Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! | $24.99 | 1,352 92% | 41k | $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) | Auroch Digital | |
 | Alien: Rogue Incursion Evolved Edition | $29.99 | 899 72% | 27k | $809k (exactly $808,830) | Survios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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