Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Aliens

Of 24 developers who shipped an Alien Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×224 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 59 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 59 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $419 → $1.2k → $33k → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,022)
Top 5% $141k (exactly $140,972)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 97
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,134 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Armageddon (Classic) older $19.99 945 81% 28k $567k (exactly $566,716) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Nemesis: Lockdown older $24.99 732 68% 22k $549k (exactly $548,780) InterStudio
X-COM: UFO Defense older $4.99 3,205 96% 96k $480k (exactly $479,788) MicroProse Software, Inc
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
变量 Variables older $10.99 954 86% 29k $315k (exactly $314,534) Asteroid Game Studio
Templar Battleforce older $9.99 931 92% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Trese Brothers
Black & White older $14.99 612 71% 18k $275k (exactly $275,216) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Earth vs Mars $14.99 74 85% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Relic Entertainment
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Void Scout $11.99 18 83% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Adversity Games Ltd.
Witchcrafter The TCG $15.99 12 83% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Spear Group Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.