Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Wargame?

Wargame + Aliens

Of 32 developers who shipped an Alien Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1614 the market median. Revenue is up 745% on the market; 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 745% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $238 → $719 → $3.4k → $1.5k → $0 → $479 (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,425)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 96
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 745% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Base Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 31,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Starship Troopers: Terran Command 2022 · $8.3M Shadow Empire 2020 · $1.7M Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! 2026 · $1.0M Warhammer 40,000: Armageddon (Classic) 2014 · $567k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Warhammer 40,000: Armageddon (Classic) older $19.99 945 81% 28k $567k (exactly $566,716) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Polaris Sector older $39.99 419 70% 13k $503k (exactly $502,674) SoftWarWare
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Stellar Warfare · EA older $19.99 318 81% 9.5k $191k (exactly $190,705) Tense Games
Codex of Victory older $14.99 260 69% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) Ino-Co Plus
Swarm Queen older $7.49 384 94% 12k $86k (exactly $86,285) Helmi Bastami (Flyborg.net)
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios
Earth vs Mars $14.99 74 85% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Relic Entertainment
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Space Tales $14.99 35 80% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Saigon Dragon Studios
Live Hard, Die Hard $4.99 83 89% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Deep Dark Forest $7.99 41 87% 1.2k $9.8k (exactly $9,828) pixiangames
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.