Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Crafting game?

Crafting + Aliens

Of 45 developers who shipped an Alien Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 98 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 98 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $3.8k → $5.4k → $1.6k → $959 → $2.7k → $42k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,822)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 131
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 46,175 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Subnautica 2018 · $307M Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M The Planet Crafter 2024 · $50M Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M Breathedge 2021 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Breathedge older $24.99 14,697 82% 441k $11M (exactly $11,018,341) RedRuins Softworks
Eastshade older $24.99 5,183 89% 155k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) Eastshade Studios
Loddlenaut older $19.99 3,832 98% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,298,050) Moon Lagoon
Interstellar Rift older $19.99 1,411 66% 42k $846k (exactly $846,177) Split Polygon
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
Shinehill $10.99 265 95% 8.0k $87k (exactly $87,370) Peach Bite
Ship of Heroes $29.99 91 27% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Heroic Games Corporation
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Space Chef $14.99 105 73% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Blue Goo Games
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.