Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Aliens

Of 30 developers who shipped an Alien Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×208 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 44 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 44 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $34k → $3.6k → $2.2k → $2.7k → $12k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,850)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $98,934)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 58
Announced 44
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Kitchen Crisis older $14.99 311 74% 9.3k $140k (exactly $139,857) Team Samoyed
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Space Food Truck older $9.99 216 71% 6.5k $65k (exactly $64,735) One Man Left Studios
Guardians of Dao · EA $19.99 63 74% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) George Financial Holding Ltd.
Corrupted: Dawn of Havoc · EA older $14.99 75 65% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) 36Litters
Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. $7.99 130 87% 3.9k $31k (exactly $31,161) Definitely Named Steve
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Kill the Brickman $4.99 166 75% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,850) Doonutsaur
Inventorix $4.99 131 100% 3.9k $20k (exactly $19,611) Arcaludi
Card Coder $14.99 27 74% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Prof. Scherer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.