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Should I ship an Alien Base Building game?
Base Building + Aliens
Of 65 developers who shipped an Alien Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 645% on the market; 135 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,678) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,384) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 65 |
| Released games | 178 |
| Announced | 135 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 645% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Aliens
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Exploration, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 83,748 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
The Planet Crafter 2024 · $50M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | The Planet Crafter | older | $23.99 | 68,855 96% | 2.1M | $50M (exactly $49,554,944) | Miju Games |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
 | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
 | Breathedge | older | $24.99 | 14,697 82% | 441k | $11M (exactly $11,018,341) | RedRuins Softworks |
 | Halo Wars: Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 8,627 92% | 259k | $5.2M (exactly $5,173,612) | Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive… (Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive, 343 Industries) |
 | Xenonauts | older | $24.99 | 3,815 86% | 114k | $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) | Goldhawk Interactive |
 | Tower Dominion | $17.49 | 5,117 85% | 154k | $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) | Parallel 45 Games | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Drill Core | $19.99 | 2,130 84% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) | Hungry Couch Games | |
 | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Mineral Defense | $14.99 | 220 90% | 6.6k | $99k (exactly $98,934) | Corestone Games | |
 | Ship of Heroes | $29.99 | 91 27% | 2.7k | $82k (exactly $81,873) | Heroic Games Corporation | |
 | Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids | $29.99 | 90 83% | 2.7k | $81k (exactly $80,973) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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