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Should I ship an Alien Turn-Based Strategy?
Turn-Based Strategy + Aliens
Of 27 developers who shipped an Alien Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×224 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 61 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,698) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $33,278) |
| Top 5% | $141k (exactly $140,972) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 110 |
| Announced | 61 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Aliens
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Tactical
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,372 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + Cold WarFair
- + RomeFair
- + LootFair
- + MiningFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + TanksFair
- + SokobanFair
- + Top-Down ShooterFair
- + SpaceFair
Comparable games
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
XCOM®: Chimera Squad 2020 · $6.2M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | XCOM®: Chimera Squad | older | $9.99 | 20,602 71% | 618k | $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) | Firaxis Games |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Phoenix Point | older | $24.99 | 5,375 73% | 161k | $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
 | Xenonauts | older | $24.99 | 3,815 86% | 114k | $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) | Goldhawk Interactive |
 | ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition | older | $9.99 | 6,626 79% | 199k | $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Shadow Empire | older | $39.99 | 1,431 82% | 43k | $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) | VR Designs |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Armageddon (Classic) | older | $19.99 | 945 81% | 28k | $567k (exactly $566,716) | Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio |
 | Every Day We Fight | · EA | $29.99 | 385 72% | 12k | $346k (exactly $346,384) | Signal Space Lab |
 | R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos | $49.99 | 94 82% | 2.8k | $141k (exactly $140,972) | Granzella Inc. | |
 | Stellar Orphans | $16.99 | 139 71% | 4.2k | $71k (exactly $70,848) | Artifex Parvus | |
 | Clonizer | $14.99 | 146 82% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $65,656) | Juicy Plume | |
 | Void Marauders | $13.99 | 106 77% | 3.2k | $44k (exactly $44,488) | Autarca | |
 | Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy | $9.99 | 138 60% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | QuadCom Interactive | |
 | Earth vs Mars | $14.99 | 74 85% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Flaregate Network | $14.99 | 58 77% | 1.7k | $26k (exactly $26,083) | Keycard Studio, LLC | |
 | Kill the Brickman | $4.99 | 166 75% | 5.0k | $25k (exactly $24,850) | Doonutsaur | |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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