Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Idler?

Idler + Aliens

Of 28 developers who shipped an Alien Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $480. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 40 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 40 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $17k → $802 → $2.4k → $599 (still earning) → $4.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,287)
Top 5% $30k (exactly $29,777)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 66
Announced 40
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,239 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Lifeform Zero older $7.99 476 82% 14k $114k (exactly $114,097) Sins of Succubus
Lazy Galaxy 2 older $7.99 167 77% 5.0k $40k (exactly $40,030) Coldwild Games
We Need More Humans! $6.99 142 72% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,777) Seafront Games
Femdemic - An Idle World Feminization Game older $14.99 64 53% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Rel.Pink
Prepare Uranus: Exploring Black Holes for Adults · EA older $7.99 97 62% 2.9k $23k (exactly $23,251) Alienguy
Fallen Seeds older $6.99 83 87% 2.5k $17k (exactly $17,405) KPD
USA 2020 older $1.89 244 78% 7.3k $14k (exactly $13,835) GAMES FOR HUMANS
Sporbs $4.99 92 78% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) Who Nose Studios
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Idle Stellar $4.99 45 60% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Noody Games
Aeons of Rebirth $4.99 42 66% 1.3k $6.3k (exactly $6,287) Short Scale
IDLE: Intergalactic Defense League Exterminators $5.99 34 64% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) PolyB Games
Galactic Simulator 3 $6.99 21 100% 630 $4.4k (exactly $4,404) PcZ Games
Fungal Colony Sim 2 $7.99 13 61% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Skylor Beck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.