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Should I ship an Alien Sandbox?
Sandbox + Aliens
Of 47 developers who shipped an Alien Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2034 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 105 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $390 (exactly $390) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $43k (exactly $43,483) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 47 |
| Released games | 163 |
| Announced | 105 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Base Building
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 49,848 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
The Planet Crafter 2024 · $50M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
SPORE™ 2008 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | The Planet Crafter | older | $23.99 | 68,855 96% | 2.1M | $50M (exactly $49,554,944) | Miju Games |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | Saints Row IV: Re-Elected | older | $19.99 | 57,525 87% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $34,497,742) | Deep Silver Volition |
 | Crysis Remastered | older | $29.99 | 16,822 77% | 505k | $15M (exactly $15,134,753) | Crytek |
 | Breathedge | older | $24.99 | 14,697 82% | 441k | $11M (exactly $11,018,341) | RedRuins Softworks |
 | Crysis 2 Remastered | older | $29.99 | 9,034 89% | 271k | $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) | Crytek, Saber Interactive |
 | Destroy All Humans! | older | $29.99 | 8,971 92% | 269k | $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) | Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Drill Core | $19.99 | 2,130 84% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) | Hungry Couch Games | |
 | The Spotter: Dig or Die | $12.99 | 1,792 84% | 54k | $698k (exactly $698,342) | Puppyroar Games | |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Project L33T: Founders Edition | $19.99 | 525 47% | 16k | $315k (exactly $314,842) | Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games | |
 | LIFE EFFECT Survival | · EA | $14.99 | 488 85% | 15k | $219k (exactly $219,454) | LIFE EFFECT |
 | Space for Sale | $19.99 | 140 50% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mirage Game Studios | |
 | Artificial Extinction 2 | $19.99 | 113 77% | 3.4k | $68k (exactly $67,766) | 100Hr Games Inc | |
 | ASTROBOTANICA | · EA | $19.99 | 76 59% | 2.3k | $46k (exactly $45,577) | Space Goblin Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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