Should I ship an Alien 4X?
4X + Aliens
Only 7 developers shipped an Alien 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Exogate Initiative, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×346 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,287) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $23,740) |
| Top 5% | $518k (exactly $518,043) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X
- Price point
- $5.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 38,182 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M 
ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition 2012 · $2.0M 
Shadow Empire 2020 · $1.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
| | ENDLESS Space™ - Definitive Edition | older | $9.99 | 6,626 79% | 199k | $2.0M (exactly $1,985,812) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Shadow Empire | older | $39.99 | 1,431 82% | 43k | $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) | VR Designs |
 | Exogate Initiative | $24.99 | 691 75% | 21k | $518k (exactly $518,043) | Xeno Bits | |
 | Polaris Sector | older | $39.99 | 419 70% | 13k | $503k (exactly $502,674) | SoftWarWare |
 | Pandora: First Contact | older | $29.99 | 538 61% | 16k | $484k (exactly $484,039) | Proxy Studios |
 | Galactic Civilizations® II: Ultimate Edition | older | $9.99 | 955 80% | 29k | $286k (exactly $286,214) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | The Last Federation | older | $19.99 | 380 72% | 11k | $228k (exactly $227,886) | Arcen Games |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios | |
 | Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance | $6.99 | 86 55% | 2.6k | $18k (exactly $18,034) | zzzgame | |
 | Aeons of Rebirth | $4.99 | 42 66% | 1.3k | $6.3k (exactly $6,287) | Short Scale | |
 | Galleria | $4.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Maru Studio | |
 | Y2K Directive | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | KszaDev | |
 | El Conquista | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Dexypher Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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