Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Aliens

Of 33 developers who shipped an Alien Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×8.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×4221 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 50 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.0k → $449 → $1.8k → $1.5k → $8.6k → $14k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,903)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 95
Announced 50
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 7,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Directive 8020 $49.99 1,337 63% 40k $2.0M (exactly $2,005,099) Supermassive Games
Projekt: Passion - Season 1 older $11.99 3,501 92% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,310) Classy Lemon
The Fermi Paradox · EA older $18.99 956 76% 29k $545k (exactly $544,633) Anomaly Games
The Symbiant older $19.99 785 95% 24k $471k (exactly $470,764) HeartCoreDev
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
Polda 7 older $17.99 496 92% 15k $268k (exactly $267,691) Zima software
Tales From The Unending Void: Season 1 older $14.99 427 88% 13k $192k (exactly $192,022) Perverteer Games
The Symbiant Re:Union older $14.99 270 91% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) HeartCoreDev
Earth Must Die $15.99 238 85% 7.1k $114k (exactly $114,169) Size Five Games
Dead in Antares $19.99 189 77% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Ishtar Games
Stellar Dream - Part 1 $14.99 129 87% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Winterlook Games
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio
OMEGA 6 The Triangle Stars $14.99 37 91% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Takaya Imamura, Happymeal, Pleocene
Who Are You!? $7.99 58 68% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,903) Haunting Humans Studio
Love at The Milky Way Diner · EA $13.99 25 100% 750 $10k (exactly $10,492) Lucky Kim, Emanuelle Heikens

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.