Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien RTS?

RTS + Aliens

Of 40 developers who shipped an Alien RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is up 745% on the market; 63 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 745% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7M → $898 → $4.2k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $300 → $6.9k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,740)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 136
Announced 63
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 745% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Strategy, Action RTS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 8,529 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Aliens: Dark Descent 2023 · $18M Starship Troopers: Terran Command 2022 · $8.3M Halo Wars: Definitive Edition 2017 · $5.2M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M Silica 2023 · EA · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Halo Wars: Definitive Edition older $19.99 8,627 92% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,173,612) Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive… (Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive, 343 Industries)
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Silica · EA older $19.99 4,468 77% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,679,460) Martin 'Dram' Melichárek
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ older $6.96 8,777 89% 263k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,638) EA Los Angeles
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Defense Grid: The Awakening older $9.99 4,528 96% 136k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,042) Hidden Path Entertainment
Natural Selection 2 older $4.99 8,633 85% 259k $1.3M (exactly $1,292,360) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Chip ‘n Clawz vs. The Brainioids $29.99 90 83% 2.7k $81k (exactly $80,973) Snapshot Games Inc.
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Space Tales $14.99 35 80% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Saigon Dragon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.