Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow game?

Snow

Of 194 developers who shipped a Snow game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 266 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×741 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 266 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 266 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 194
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $1.5k → $1.5k → $750 → $1.6k → $898 → $598 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 194
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $5.6k (exactly $5,571)
Top 5% $352k (exactly $352,086)
Developers, 2 yr 194
Released games 556
Announced 266
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 71,471 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 266 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Snow

49 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Resource Management + Snow Fair $3.8k 24 devs
  2. Procedural Generation + Snow Fair $3.0k 11 devs
  3. Combat + Snow Fair $1.2k 21 devs
  4. Survival Horror + Snow Fair $1.2k 17 devs
  5. Hidden Object + Snow Fair $899 16 devs
  6. Shooter + Snow Fair $570 22 devs
  7. Interactive Fiction + Snow Fair $478 10 devs
  8. Puzzle + Snow Fair $450 45 devs
  9. Point & Click + Snow Fair $449 17 devs
  10. Strategy + Snow Long shot $356 33 devs
  11. Collectathon + Snow Long shot $299 14 devs
  12. Base Building + Snow Poor odds $33k 12 devs
  13. Building + Snow Poor odds $33k 18 devs
  14. Sandbox + Snow Poor odds $33k 17 devs
  15. Driving + Snow Poor odds $33k 13 devs
  16. Co-op + Snow Poor odds $13k 10 devs
  17. Management + Snow Poor odds $11k 16 devs
  18. Immersive Sim + Snow Poor odds $11k 18 devs
  19. Crafting + Snow Poor odds $10k 20 devs
  20. Character Customization + Snow Poor odds $7.3k 14 devs
  21. Open World + Snow Poor odds $5.4k 22 devs
  22. Racing + Snow Poor odds $3.6k 16 devs
  23. Survival + Snow Poor odds $3.0k 40 devs
  24. Exploration + Snow Poor odds $2.8k 73 devs
  25. Walking Simulator + Snow Poor odds $2.1k 18 devs
  26. RPG + Snow Poor odds $2.1k 14 devs
  27. Simulation + Snow Poor odds $1.8k 52 devs
  28. Physics + Snow Poor odds $1.3k 25 devs
  29. Sports + Snow Poor odds $1.3k 18 devs
  30. Adventure + Snow Poor odds $1.3k 88 devs
  31. Action-Adventure + Snow Poor odds $1.2k 32 devs
  32. Multiple Endings + Snow Poor odds $899 14 devs
  33. PvE + Snow Poor odds $897 18 devs
  34. Choose Your Own Adventure + Snow Poor odds $750 10 devs
  35. 3D Platformer + Snow Poor odds $599 14 devs
  36. Puzzle Platformer + Snow Poor odds $599 10 devs
  37. Platformer + Snow Poor odds $446 24 devs
  38. Action + Snow Poor odds $419 72 devs
  39. Choices Matter + Snow Poor odds $299 18 devs
  40. FPS + Snow Poor odds $270 9 devs
  41. Skiing + Snow Dead $33k 8 devs
  42. Visual Novel + Snow Dead $750 8 devs
  43. Logic + Snow Dead $450 13 devs
  44. 2D Platformer + Snow Dead $359 17 devs
  45. Arcade + Snow Dead $240 37 devs
  46. Precision Platformer + Snow Dead $240 9 devs
  47. PvP + Snow Dead $120 11 devs
  48. Runner + Snow Dead $119 10 devs
  49. Score Attack + Snow Dead $90 15 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SnowRunner 2021 · $42M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Steep™ 2016 · $28M Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M Assetto Corsa Rally 2025 · EA · $7.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Steep™ older $29.99 30,589 82% 918k $28M (exactly $27,520,923) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ub… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev)
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Bread & Fred older $14.99 4,217 79% 127k $1.9M (exactly $1,896,385) SandCastles Studio
LOST PLANET® 3 older $24.99 2,008 64% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,505,398) Spark Unlimited
Lushfoil Photography Sim $14.99 1,718 91% 52k $773k (exactly $772,585) Matt2
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Lonely Mountains: Snow Riders $24.99 749 91% 22k $562k (exactly $561,525) Megagon Industries
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.