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Should I ship a Snow Choices Matter game?
Choices Matter + Snow
Only 18 developers shipped a Snow Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Frostpunk 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 410% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $299 (exactly $299) |
| Top 25% | $3.1k (exactly $3,140) |
| Top 5% | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 410% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Snow
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Resource Management, Strategy
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Cute, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 21,392 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M 
The Pale Beyond 2023 · $1.1M 
Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ 2021 · $1.0M 
The Red Lantern 2021 · $700k 
Frostrain 2 2026 · $123k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
| | The Pale Beyond | older | $19.99 | 1,858 90% | 56k | $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) | Saltstone Studios |
| | Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ | older | $7.99 | 4,272 92% | 128k | $1.0M (exactly $1,023,998) | the last evil wizard, Nupu Neko Dev |
| | The Red Lantern | older | $24.99 | 934 83% | 28k | $700k (exactly $700,220) | Timberline Studio |
| | Frostrain 2 | $10.99 | 374 89% | 11k | $123k (exactly $123,308) | nemonan | |
 | Climber: Sky is the Limit | older | $21.99 | 142 69% | 4.3k | $94k (exactly $93,677) | A2 Softworks, Art Games Studio S.A. |
 | Twofold | older | $19.99 | 106 97% | 3.2k | $64k (exactly $63,568) | Salty Salty Studios, Studio Coattails |
 | Firebird | older | $11.99 | 68 100% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $24,460) | Ludogram, FibreTigre, Quentin Vijoux |
 | Darkway: Murder of King Mere | $7.99 | 78 97% | 2.3k | $19k (exactly $18,697) | IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap | |
 | Nova Antarctica | $24.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $10k (exactly $10,496) | RexLabo, PARCO GAMES | |
 | Heat or Die | $2.99 | 35 80% | 1.1k | $3.1k (exactly $3,140) | Mounpeak Games | |
 | Chemp Physics | · EA | $6.00 | 7 100% | 210 | $1.3k (exactly $1,260) | XORWIRE Games |
 | Frostveil: The Last Winter | $3.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | Alabarda Gaming | |
 | But Why Penguin? | $2.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $359 (exactly $359) | UPI Games | |
 | Santa is real | $4.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | unitedvirtualassets | |
 | Hentai Senpai: Thiccmas Cumsluts | $6.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Kink Master Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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