Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Crafting game?

Crafting + Snow

Of 20 developers who shipped a Snow Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.5M, ×15217 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 38 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $570 → $54k → $1.8k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $10k (exactly $10,496)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $85,157)
Top 5% $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 40
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 24,249 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $9.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 38 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M Project Winter 2019 · $4.1M Fade to Silence 2019 · $928k Arctico 2022 · $661k OxyRail 2026 · EA · $427k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
Fade to Silence older $29.99 1,032 62% 31k $928k (exactly $928,490) Black Forest Games
Arctico older $9.99 2,207 70% 66k $661k (exactly $661,438) Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
Northern Lights · EA older $11.99 236 63% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,889) MadGoat Studio
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
The Cold White $9.99 44 45% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) 2MEDYA
Nova Antarctica $24.99 14 78% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) RexLabo, PARCO GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.