Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Runner?

Runner + Snow

Only 10 developers shipped a Snow Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fresh Tracks, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120 against a market of $480. 6 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 6 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $987 → $30
Outcomes for Runner + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,224)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 6
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 91% positive over 137 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Alto Collection older $9.99 263 94% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) Land & Sea
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Grapple League older $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Rain Check Studios
Riding Seas older $4.99 35 80% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) CatOnTree Studio
Red Fox and the Four Seasons $4.99 23 69% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Boogygames Studios
Hypotheses on the Symmetry between Vision and Hands $1.99 54 96% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) Finger tip
Games Advent Calendar - 25 Days - 25 Surprises older $14.99 6 0% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Mindscape, Denda Games, Graphium Studio
YetiFree older $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Obliterated Entertainment
Robosnow older $5.99 7 85% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Vitok
Lost Meow older $2.99 11 90% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Sanya Laneev
The Winter Adventurer $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Menace Gaming Studios
Car Soccer Simulator · EA $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Kongratz
Slide Faster $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Puzzle Drop Studio
Ice Run $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Levi Teixeira
Santa Gamepaper $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Nadia JuM GameN
Christmas Drift - Delivery Simulator $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GLOBAL VISION SOLUTIONS SRL
SavingSanta $5.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ken Henson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.