Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Logic game?

Logic + Snow

Only 13 developers shipped a Snow Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $450 against a market of $480. 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 12 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $1.5k → $1.1k → $210
Outcomes for Logic + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 40
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Linear, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 244 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Relicta older $19.99 234 76% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Mighty Polygon
Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens $14.99 179 95% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Mushreb Games
BORIS THE ROCKET 🚀 older $9.99 87 97% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) toR Studio
Facility 47 older $4.99 107 90% 3.2k $16k (exactly $16,018) Inertia Game Studios
Survivorman VR The Descent older $14.99 15 93% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Cream Productions Inc., Descent VR Prod… (Cream Productions Inc., Descent VR Productions Inc.)
Arctictopia older $4.99 30 93% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Gamtropy
Icemaze Cave: Skate Escape older $5.99 24 95% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Ornbjorn
Faraway: Arctic Escape older $4.99 26 69% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Pine Studio
Christmas Fables: Holiday Guardians Collector's Edition older $7.99 15 60% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Do Games Limited
Nino Maze LOFI older $0.99 95 88% 2.9k $2.8k (exactly $2,822) Carlos Junio
Globs $2.99 28 100% 840 $2.5k (exactly $2,512) Ninesliced, ArkanYota, Notgoyome, Theob… (Ninesliced, ArkanYota, Notgoyome, Theobosse, Strochnis, Yolwoocle)
Christmas Fables: Nutcracker's Tale Collector's Edition $11.99 5 40% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Do Games Limited
DEDALO - Escape Room Adventure $5.99 9 55% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) M9 Games
Jixo: The Season of Joy Collector's Edition $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) MixoGames Ltd.
Christmas Fables: The Wishing Store Collector's Edition $8.99 4 50% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Do Games Limited
Chester The Chest $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Pablyco
Let's Freeze Some Penguins $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Neckbolt
Hentai Sora $0.99 8 75% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Cyber Keks
Heave Away Haul Away $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Rokem Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.