Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Combat game?

Combat + Snow

Of 21 developers who shipped a Snow Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 280% on the market; 24 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 280% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $570 → $180 → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 5% $205k (exactly $205,063)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 54
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 280% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,791 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  6. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  8. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  9. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced
  12. + ProgrammingPoor odds10 devs · median $14k · 19 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
FROGGY HATES SNOW $14.99 456 91% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) CRYING BRICK
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Snow Bros. Wonderland $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Tatsujin, Bitwave Games, Toaplan
Winter War 1939 older $4.99 145 88% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,706) Thorium Game Lab
Intrepid Izzy older $18.99 35 94% 1.1k $20k (exactly $19,940) Senile Team
Food Chain · EA older $7.99 69 59% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Kozhakov
MoonWhite older $0.99 254 97% 7.6k $7.5k (exactly $7,544) MoonWhiteStudio
Reindeer Story $7.99 24 95% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Azzie, Smoggysoft
Snowlike $7.99 14 92% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) captinbeefy
By My Side $9.99 10 70% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) OverLKD Studio
Snowscape $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Cosnow, Yim Sang Woo, parser, MEADOWS95
Midwinter Fan Remaster · EA $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Titanium Helix Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.