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Should I ship a Snow Base Building game?
Base Building + Snow
Only 12 developers shipped a Snow Base Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Frostpunk 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×44858 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
|---|---|
| Median | $33k (exactly $33,267) |
| Top 25% | $251k (exactly $250,960) |
| Top 5% | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 27 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Snow
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 22,798 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M 
Fade to Silence 2019 · $928k 
Arctico 2022 · $661k 
OxyRail 2026 · EA · $427k 
Arctic Motel Simulator 2025 · $251k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
| | Fade to Silence | older | $29.99 | 1,032 62% | 31k | $928k (exactly $928,490) | Black Forest Games |
| | Arctico | older | $9.99 | 2,207 70% | 66k | $661k (exactly $661,438) | Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas |
| | OxyRail | · EA | $14.99 | 949 80% | 28k | $427k (exactly $426,765) | OxygenTech Limited |
| | Arctic Motel Simulator | $17.99 | 465 88% | 14k | $251k (exactly $250,960) | One Slice of Pizza Games | |
 | Frozen Ship | · EA | $19.99 | 142 76% | 4.3k | $85k (exactly $85,157) | Nionetix |
 | Frost Survival VR | $14.99 | 161 89% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $72,402) | Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o. | |
 | HG Adventure | · EA older | $13.99 | 132 88% | 4.0k | $55k (exactly $55,400) | 皓际 |
 | Ice World | $9.99 | 111 57% | 3.3k | $33k (exactly $33,267) | CoolRabbit Games | |
 | Vilset | · EA older | $15.99 | 62 35% | 1.9k | $30k (exactly $29,741) | Another Reality |
 | The Cold White | $9.99 | 44 45% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $13,187) | 2MEDYA | |
 | Octohill Ski Tycoon | $8.99 | 41 85% | 1.2k | $11k (exactly $11,058) | DeuxBaguettes | |
 | By My Side | $9.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | OverLKD Studio | |
 | Factory Train: DreamLine | $9.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | Unoptimized Bird |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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