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Should I ship a Snow Collectathon game?
Collectathon + Snow
Only 14 developers shipped a Snow Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledding Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.
Verdict: long shot, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1471 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $299 (exactly $299) |
| Top 25% | $1.6k (exactly $1,552) |
| Top 5% | $699k (exactly $698,726) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Collectathon
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Snow
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Character Customization
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Colorful, Cartoon
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 3,001 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + CapitalismStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + ManagementFair
- + CrimeFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SokobanFair
- + MythologyFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Combat RacingFair
Comparable games
Sledding Game 2026 · EA · $699k 
MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE 2023 · $101k 
SantaCraft 2020 · $23k 
AtmaSphere 2 2024 · $22k 
Nova Antarctica 2026 · $10k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sledding Game | · EA | $7.99 | 2,915 96% | 87k | $699k (exactly $698,726) | The Sledding Corporation |
| | MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE | older | $12.99 | 259 77% | 7.8k | $101k (exactly $100,932) | Hakababunko |
| | SantaCraft | older | $7.99 | 97 96% | 2.9k | $23k (exactly $23,251) | Milkbag Games |
| | AtmaSphere 2 | older | $4.99 | 146 79% | 4.4k | $22k (exactly $21,856) | Mazen Games |
| | Nova Antarctica | $24.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $10k (exactly $10,496) | RexLabo, PARCO GAMES | |
 | LINK Penguins | $5.99 | 31 87% | 930 | $5.6k (exactly $5,571) | lemorion_1224 | |
 | Alexey's Winter: Night Adventure | older | $6.99 | 20 75% | 600 | $4.2k (exactly $4,194) | Nezhysoft |
 | Faraway: Arctic Escape | older | $4.99 | 26 69% | 780 | $3.9k (exactly $3,892) | Pine Studio |
 | Penguins Can Fly | older | $2.99 | 18 88% | 540 | $1.6k (exactly $1,615) | Joseph Cook |
 | Lil Elfred Re:Gifted | $1.99 | 26 100% | 780 | $1.6k (exactly $1,552) | Annue and Friends | |
 | Chester The Chest | $4.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Pablyco | |
 | Swashbuckler's Xmas | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | North Shore Games | |
 | Relax Puzzle | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Happy Plus | |
 | SnowFlow | · EA | $8.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $270 (exactly $270) | TheStyleMachine |
 | Cozy Campzone | $2.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $269 (exactly $269) | RSoft Games | |
 | Reindeer Wrangler | $6.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Caleb Van Rijn |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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