Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Management game?

Management + Snow

Only 16 developers shipped a Snow Management game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Frostpunk 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×44858 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Management + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $11k (exactly $11,058)
Top 25% $123k (exactly $123,308)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,170,938)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 32
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 22,689 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Winter Resort Simulator 2 older $24.99 1,336 84% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Simuverse Interactive
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
Climber: Sky is the Limit older $21.99 142 69% 4.3k $94k (exactly $93,677) A2 Softworks, Art Games Studio S.A.
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
POJANGMACHA : Korean Street Food Management Simulator $9.99 229 94% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,631) AnomalyGuys
Arctic Shift: Fuel Station $13.99 79 49% 2.4k $33k (exactly $33,156) Wildbyte
Zoo Park Story older $8.99 101 82% 3.0k $27k (exactly $27,240) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Octohill Ski Tycoon $8.99 41 85% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) DeuxBaguettes
Yuki-Onna Checker $2.99 101 89% 3.0k $9.1k (exactly $9,060) 闇宮
Factory Train: DreamLine $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Unoptimized Bird

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.