Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Open World game?

Open World + Snow

Of 22 developers who shipped a Snow Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2481 the market median. Revenue is up 1545% on the market; 60 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1545% on the market, 60 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $10k → $1.4k → $54k → $1.3k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,394)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $72,402)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 64
Announced 60
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1545% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Driving
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 34,310 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SnowRunner 2021 · $42M Steep™ 2016 · $28M Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M Easy Delivery Co. 2025 · $3.7M LOST PLANET® 3 2013 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Steep™ older $29.99 30,589 82% 918k $28M (exactly $27,520,923) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ub… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev)
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
LOST PLANET® 3 older $24.99 2,008 64% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,505,398) Spark Unlimited
Kona older $14.99 2,795 82% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,912) Parabole
Fade to Silence older $29.99 1,032 62% 31k $928k (exactly $928,490) Black Forest Games
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Arctico older $9.99 2,207 70% 66k $661k (exactly $661,438) Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas
PANELKI older $7.99 2,404 86% 72k $576k (exactly $576,239) Alexander Gromyko
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Snow Plowing Simulator $15.99 281 64% 8.4k $135k (exactly $134,796) FreeMind S.A.
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Snowed Under | 雪葬 $7.99 194 60% 5.8k $47k (exactly $46,502) Chilla's Art
Arctic Shift: Fuel Station $13.99 79 49% 2.4k $33k (exactly $33,156) Wildbyte
The Cold White $9.99 44 45% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) 2MEDYA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.