Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Physics game?

Physics + Snow

Of 25 developers who shipped a Snow Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×12546 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 49 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $0 → $1.6k → $7.9M → $240 (still earning) → $135 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,260)
Top 25% $352k (exactly $352,086)
Top 5% $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 67
Announced 49
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Racing, Driving
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 48,154 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $7.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SnowRunner 2021 · $42M Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M Assetto Corsa Rally 2025 · EA · $7.9M Sledders 2025 · $3.9M Easy Delivery Co. 2025 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Winter Resort Simulator 2 older $24.99 1,336 84% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Simuverse Interactive
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Lonely Mountains: Snow Riders $24.99 749 91% 22k $562k (exactly $561,525) Megagon Industries
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
BMX The Game · EA older $24.99 448 60% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Barspin Studios
Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens $14.99 179 95% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Mushreb Games
Figure Skating Legends $6.99 35 97% 1.1k $7.3k (exactly $7,340) Tomas Daugela
Whelm · EA $11.99 8 87% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Lesser Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.