Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Snow

Only 10 developers shipped a Snow Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $599 → $898
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.6k (exactly $5,571)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,496)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 94% positive over 306 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Relicta older $19.99 234 76% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Mighty Polygon
Ballex²: The Hanging Gardens $14.99 179 95% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Mushreb Games
AtmaSphere 2 older $4.99 146 79% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Mazen Games
Darkway: Murder of King Mere $7.99 78 97% 2.3k $19k (exactly $18,697) IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap
LINK Penguins $5.99 31 87% 930 $5.6k (exactly $5,571) lemorion_1224
Home Defender older $5.99 23 56% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Retro Revenge Ltd
Snowyland older $1.99 31 96% 930 $1.9k (exactly $1,851) Donnie Game Studio
VRosty older $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) TomyHorst
How To Build Your Igloo older $6.99 7 100% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Andrea Ravasio
Ludde older $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Shellander Games
Aralunis $5.99 5 60% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Nezashiron Games
Chester The Chest $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Pablyco
Bounce Quest $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) nozech
Let's Freeze Some Penguins $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Neckbolt
Hopward $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) GoodGhostGames
Reindeer Wrangler $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Caleb Van Rijn
Walking on Ice $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) The Black Pearl

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.