Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Strategy game?

Strategy + Snow

Of 33 developers who shipped a Snow Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×457 the market median. Revenue is up 2410% on the market; 36 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2410% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $537 → $4.1k → $359 → $0 → $356 → $3.8k → $598 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $356 (exactly $356)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 5% $287k (exactly $287,135)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 77
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2410% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Exploration, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 22,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
The Pale Beyond older $19.99 1,858 90% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Saltstone Studios
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
FROGGY HATES SNOW $14.99 456 91% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) CRYING BRICK
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
Path of Giants older $8.99 410 97% 12k $111k (exactly $110,577) Journey Bound Games
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Darkway: Murder of King Mere $7.99 78 97% 2.3k $19k (exactly $18,697) IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap
Octohill Ski Tycoon $8.99 41 85% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) DeuxBaguettes
K2: Digital Edition $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Devon Games
Breakfall: Nuclear Winter · EA $17.99 7 28% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Dominik Geuer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.