Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Action game?

Action + Snow

Of 72 developers who shipped a Snow Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 108 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 108 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $1.3k → $1.5k → $570 → $446 → $419 → $270 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,140)
Top 5% $84k (exactly $83,976)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 194
Announced 108
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,484 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $83k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Steep™ 2016 · $28M Project Winter 2019 · $4.1M LOST PLANET® 3 2013 · $1.5M Fade to Silence 2019 · $928k Lost Planet™: Extreme Condition 2007 · $845k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Steep™ older $29.99 30,589 82% 918k $28M (exactly $27,520,923) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ub… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev)
Project Winter older $9.99 13,662 84% 410k $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) Other Ocean Interactive
LOST PLANET® 3 older $24.99 2,008 64% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,505,398) Spark Unlimited
Fade to Silence older $29.99 1,032 62% 31k $928k (exactly $928,490) Black Forest Games
Lost Planet™: Extreme Condition older $14.99 1,878 80% 56k $845k (exactly $844,537) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
BMX The Game · EA older $24.99 448 60% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Barspin Studios
Near Death older $7.99 1,010 91% 30k $242k (exactly $242,097) Orthogonal Games
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
FROGGY HATES SNOW $14.99 456 91% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) CRYING BRICK
Relicta older $19.99 234 76% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Mighty Polygon
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
SNOW BROS. 2 SPECIAL $34.99 80 70% 2.4k $84k (exactly $83,976) CRT GAMES
The Pale Mimic $7.99 345 86% 10k $83k (exactly $82,696) Dark Snow Games
Fright Train $15.99 139 89% 4.2k $67k (exactly $66,678) WildArts Games
The Black Ice · EA $14.99 147 77% 4.4k $66k (exactly $66,106) RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games
Slopecrashers $17.99 82 93% 2.5k $44k (exactly $44,255) byteparrot
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Snow Bros. Wonderland $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Tatsujin, Bitwave Games, Toaplan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.