Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Building game?

Building + Snow

Only 18 developers shipped a Snow Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mon Bazou, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.5M, ×15217 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 52.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $0 → $210k → $72k → $5.6k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $33k (exactly $33,156)
Top 25% $210k (exactly $209,700)
Top 5% $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 47
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 23,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $9.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Winter Resort Simulator 2 older $24.99 1,336 84% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Simuverse Interactive
Arctico older $9.99 2,207 70% 66k $661k (exactly $661,438) Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
When Ski Lifts Go Wrong older $14.99 519 87% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) Hugecalf Studios
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
Arctic Shift: Fuel Station $13.99 79 49% 2.4k $33k (exactly $33,156) Wildbyte
The Cold White $9.99 44 45% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) 2MEDYA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.