Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Snow
Should I ship a Snow Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Snow
Only 8 developers shipped a Snow Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, planetarian: Snow Globe, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $750 against a market of $480. 11 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $750 (exactly $750) |
| Top 25% | $6.7k (exactly $6,742) |
| Top 5% | $33k (exactly $32,678) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 39 |
| Announced | 11 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Snow
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,447 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ 2021 · $1.0M 
Mashiroiro Symphony HD -Love is Pure White- 2024 · $425k 
Mashiroiro Symphony HD -Sana Edition- 2024 · $404k 
MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE 2023 · $101k 
Yukikoi Melt 2020 · $76k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ | older | $7.99 | 4,272 92% | 128k | $1.0M (exactly $1,023,998) | the last evil wizard, Nupu Neko Dev |
| | Mashiroiro Symphony HD -Love is Pure White- | older | $39.99 | 354 87% | 11k | $425k (exactly $424,694) | Palette |
| | Mashiroiro Symphony HD -Sana Edition- | older | $29.99 | 449 91% | 13k | $404k (exactly $403,965) | Palette |
| | MAKOTO WAKAIDO’s Case Files TRILOGY DELUXE | older | $12.99 | 259 77% | 7.8k | $101k (exactly $100,932) | Hakababunko |
| | Yukikoi Melt | older | $29.99 | 84 92% | 2.5k | $76k (exactly $75,575) | Frontwing |
 | Winter Novel | older | $4.99 | 457 82% | 14k | $68k (exactly $68,413) | DeXP |
 | Twofold | older | $19.99 | 106 97% | 3.2k | $64k (exactly $63,568) | Salty Salty Studios, Studio Coattails |
 | First Snow | older | $9.99 | 125 90% | 3.8k | $37k (exactly $37,462) | Studio Ly |
 | planetarian: Snow Globe | $3.99 | 273 95% | 8.2k | $33k (exactly $32,678) | VISUAL ARTS/Key | |
 | Firebird | older | $11.99 | 68 100% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $24,460) | Ludogram, FibreTigre, Quentin Vijoux |
 | Thaw | $8.99 | 25 100% | 750 | $6.7k (exactly $6,742) | paochanz | |
 | Winter Hubris | $9.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | Melty Clown Studio | |
 | さくらいろテトラプリズム | $24.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $750 (exactly $750) | blooming spectrum | |
 | Frostveil: The Last Winter | $3.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | Alabarda Gaming | |
 | I Offered You the Crown | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Winter Twilight Productions, LLC | |
 | When It Falls | $1.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $119 (exactly $119) | Team Stargazer | |
 | Snowdrift | $6.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Overlooked Option Visual Novels |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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