Should I ship a Snow RPG?
RPG + Snow
Only 14 developers shipped a Snow RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Darkway: Murder of King Mere, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×30 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
| Top 25% | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) |
| Top 5% | $19k (exactly $18,697) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 35 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 184 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Fade to Silence 2019 · $928k 
The Red Lantern 2021 · $700k 
Stonefly 2021 · $59k 
Penguin Helper 2024 · $28k 
Frost 2016 · $27k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fade to Silence | older | $29.99 | 1,032 62% | 31k | $928k (exactly $928,490) | Black Forest Games |
| | The Red Lantern | older | $24.99 | 934 83% | 28k | $700k (exactly $700,220) | Timberline Studio |
| | Stonefly | older | $16.99 | 116 88% | 3.5k | $59k (exactly $59,125) | Flight School Studio |
| | Penguin Helper | older | $1.99 | 462 95% | 14k | $28k (exactly $27,581) | ArtDock |
| | Frost | older | $6.99 | 129 87% | 3.9k | $27k (exactly $27,051) | Jérôme Bodin |
 | SantaCraft | older | $7.99 | 97 96% | 2.9k | $23k (exactly $23,251) | Milkbag Games |
 | Darkway: Murder of King Mere | $7.99 | 78 97% | 2.3k | $19k (exactly $18,697) | IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap | |
 | The Cold White | $9.99 | 44 45% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $13,187) | 2MEDYA | |
 | Reindeer Story | $7.99 | 24 95% | 720 | $5.8k (exactly $5,753) | Azzie, Smoggysoft | |
 | Cubers: Arena | older | $14.99 | 10 90% | 300 | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) | Tomasz Dziobek (TomiGames) |
 | Breakfall: Nuclear Winter | · EA | $17.99 | 7 28% | 210 | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) | Dominik Geuer |
 | Snowlike | $7.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $3.4k (exactly $3,356) | captinbeefy | |
 | New Year Simulator 2025 | · EA | $17.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $2.2k (exactly $2,159) | HappyJack, PureDeli |
 | Complex 629 | $13.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | LillexStudios | |
 | Knights of the Apocalypse | $24.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $750 (exactly $750) | Sirius Morning Star | |
 | The Cute the Baldy and the Fluffy | $6.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $419 (exactly $419) | lightUP | |
 | Fujisan Nobori | $1.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $298 (exactly $298) | JIYUTORISEI |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.