Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim?

Dating Sim

Of 1,467 developers who shipped a Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,918 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×63 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×4103 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,918 games are announced against 856 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,918 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,467
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $13k → $11k → $9.9k → $9.7k → $8.0k → $5.1k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,467
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,151)
Top 5% $488k (exactly $488,286)
Developers, 2 yr 1,467
Released games 5,570
Announced 1,918
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 403,554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 1,042 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,918 games are announced against 856 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dating Sim

143 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Card Game + Dating Sim Poor odds $18k 23 devs
  2. Survival Horror + Dating Sim Poor odds $17k 21 devs
  3. Character Customization + Dating Sim Poor odds $17k 130 devs
  4. Time Management + Dating Sim Poor odds $16k 89 devs
  5. RPG + Dating Sim Poor odds $16k 606 devs
  6. JRPG + Dating Sim Poor odds $15k 129 devs
  7. Dating Sim + Space Poor odds $15k 26 devs
  8. Fishing + Dating Sim Poor odds $15k 13 devs
  9. Turn-Based Tactics + Dating Sim Poor odds $14k 17 devs
  10. Strategy + Dating Sim Poor odds $14k 133 devs
  11. Roguelike + Dating Sim Poor odds $13k 26 devs
  12. Adventure + Dating Sim Poor odds $13k 707 devs
  13. Action Roguelike + Dating Sim Poor odds $12k 13 devs
  14. Life Sim + Dating Sim Poor odds $12k 227 devs
  15. Choices Matter + Dating Sim Poor odds $11k 618 devs
  16. Cooking + Dating Sim Poor odds $10k 36 devs
  17. Dating Sim + Psychological Horror Poor odds $10k 118 devs
  18. Choose Your Own Adventure + Dating Sim Poor odds $10k 476 devs
  19. Dating Sim + Robots Poor odds $10k 15 devs
  20. Dating Sim + Magic Poor odds $9.9k 85 devs
  21. Multiple Endings + Dating Sim Poor odds $9.9k 658 devs
  22. Exploration + Dating Sim Poor odds $9.7k 181 devs
  23. Dating Sim + Martial Arts Poor odds $9.3k 28 devs
  24. Dating Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $9.0k 110 devs
  25. Simulation + Dating Sim Poor odds $8.7k 755 devs
  26. Dating Sim + Crime Poor odds $8.7k 35 devs
  27. Dating Sim + Horror Poor odds $8.7k 110 devs
  28. Dating Sim + Romance Poor odds $8.4k 983 devs
  29. Economy + Dating Sim Poor odds $8.4k 23 devs
  30. Dating Sim + Female Protagonist Poor odds $8.3k 403 devs
  31. Dating Sim + Mystery Poor odds $8.2k 167 devs
  32. Management + Dating Sim Poor odds $8.1k 89 devs
  33. Action + Dating Sim Poor odds $8.0k 125 devs
  34. Dating Sim + Visual Novel Poor odds $8.0k 1,071 devs
  35. Dating Sim + Otome Poor odds $7.8k 110 devs
  36. Dating Sim + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $7.7k 526 devs
  37. Dating Sim + Medieval Poor odds $7.5k 56 devs
  38. Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $6.6k 78 devs
  39. Investigation + Dating Sim Poor odds $6.6k 37 devs
  40. Dating Sim + Mythology Poor odds $6.6k 24 devs
  41. Dating Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $6.5k 30 devs
  42. Dating Sim + Modern Poor odds $6.5k 113 devs
  43. Dating Sim + Supernatural Poor odds $6.1k 48 devs
  44. Dating Sim + Word Game Poor odds $6.1k 105 devs
  45. Dating Sim + Time Travel Poor odds $6.1k 18 devs
  46. Dating Sim + Puzzle Poor odds $6.0k 121 devs
  47. Dating Sim + Detective Poor odds $6.0k 56 devs
  48. Dating Sim + Thriller Poor odds $6.0k 44 devs
  49. Dating Sim + Psychological Poor odds $5.9k 57 devs
  50. Dating Sim + Fantasy Poor odds $5.8k 288 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Undertale older $9.99 307,601 96% 9.2M $92M (exactly $92,188,020) tobyfox
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.