Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Mystery
Of 167 developers who shipped a Mystery Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 276 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 276 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.2k (exactly $8,234) |
| Top 25% | $65k (exactly $65,335) |
| Top 5% | $413k (exactly $412,987) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 167 |
| Released games | 463 |
| Announced | 276 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Interactive Fiction, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 67,462 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 6 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 276 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017 · $26M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 2016 · $19M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 3 Reload | older | $59.99 | 43,497 95% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $78,281,551) | ATLUS |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony | older | $39.99 | 21,978 82% | 659k | $26M (exactly $26,367,007) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair | older | $19.99 | 30,961 95% | 929k | $19M (exactly $18,567,312) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Raging Loop | older | $29.99 | 10,568 95% | 317k | $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) | KEMCO |
 | Riddle Joker | older | $34.99 | 5,715 97% | 171k | $6.0M (exactly $5,999,036) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Scarlet Hollow | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,833 97% | 145k | $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) | Black Tabby Games |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 | |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
 | 极速营救 | $9.99 | 1,860 86% | 56k | $557k (exactly $557,442) | 优映文化, 想象颗粒 | |
 | JASON, Coming of Age | $14.99 | 1,213 83% | 36k | $545k (exactly $545,486) | Coeur de cochon | |
 | Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise | $15.99 | 1,054 78% | 32k | $506k (exactly $505,604) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | Anomalous Coffee Machine | $9.99 | 1,587 86% | 48k | $476k (exactly $475,624) | HoruBrain Interactive | |
 | FLAM EVAW | $9.99 | 1,378 95% | 41k | $413k (exactly $412,987) | 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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