Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Fantasy
Should I ship a Fantasy Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Fantasy
Of 288 developers who shipped a Fantasy Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 406 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×811 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 406 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,615) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.8k (exactly $5,753) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $32,541) |
| Top 5% | $385k (exactly $385,198) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 288 |
| Released games | 1,053 |
| Announced | 406 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Fantasy
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 59% positive over 243,848 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 8 in 10 of the 203 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 406 games are announced against 152 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M 
Sun Haven 2023 · $17M 
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel 2017 · $6.2M 
Riddle Joker 2020 · $6.0M 
Potionomics 2022 · $5.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Sun Haven | older | $24.99 | 22,069 79% | 662k | $17M (exactly $16,545,129) | Pixel Sprout Studios |
| | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel | older | $39.99 | 5,131 94% | 154k | $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) | Nihon Falcom |
| | Riddle Joker | older | $34.99 | 5,715 97% | 171k | $6.0M (exactly $5,999,036) | YUZUSOFT |
| | Potionomics | older | $24.99 | 6,973 90% | 209k | $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) | Voracious Games |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III | older | $59.99 | 2,770 92% | 83k | $5.0M (exactly $4,985,169) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | Fate/EXTELLA | older | $39.99 | 4,091 91% | 123k | $4.9M (exactly $4,907,973) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | Monster Prom | older | $11.99 | 12,245 93% | 367k | $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) | Beautiful Glitch |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV | older | $59.99 | 2,272 91% | 68k | $4.1M (exactly $4,088,918) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Summer Pockets REFLECTION BLUE | $49.99 | 1,231 91% | 37k | $1.8M (exactly $1,846,131) | VISUAL ARTS/Key | |
 | Tales of Seikyu | $24.99 | 2,179 83% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) | ACE Entertainment | |
 | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames | |
 | The NOexistenceN of you AND me | $1.99 | 20,139 93% | 604k | $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) | 0x0Real Studio | |
 | 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 | $9.99 | 3,682 90% | 110k | $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) | 莓夜工作室 | |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
 | 美女，请别影响我成仙 | $10.99 | 3,140 93% | 94k | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) | 蒸汽满满工作室 | |
 | Monster Prom 4: Monster Con | $14.99 | 1,892 98% | 57k | $851k (exactly $850,832) | Beautiful Glitch |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.