Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Supernatural
Should I ship a Supernatural Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Supernatural
Of 48 developers who shipped a Supernatural Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×652 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 72 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.1k (exactly $6,115) |
| Top 25% | $43k (exactly $43,178) |
| Top 5% | $310k (exactly $309,626) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 128 |
| Announced | 72 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Supernatural
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,416 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M 
Scarlet Hollow 2021 · EA · $4.3M 
Gal*Gun 2 2018 · $1.9M 
Wylde Flowers 2022 · $1.7M 
Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 2020 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 3 Reload | older | $59.99 | 43,497 95% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $78,281,551) | ATLUS |
| | Scarlet Hollow | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,833 97% | 145k | $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) | Black Tabby Games |
| | Gal*Gun 2 | older | $29.99 | 2,094 83% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,883,972) | INTI CREATES CO., LTD. |
| | Wylde Flowers | older | $24.99 | 2,329 95% | 70k | $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) | Studio Drydock Pty Ltd |
| | Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 | older | $19.99 | 2,636 82% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,580,809) | Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd. |
 | Love Curse: Find Your Soulmate | $14.00 | 3,275 95% | 98k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,500) | Xso | |
 | 9-nine-:Episode 4 | older | $19.99 | 1,469 97% | 44k | $881k (exactly $880,959) | PALETTE |
 | 7'scarlet | older | $29.99 | 796 74% | 24k | $716k (exactly $716,161) | IDEA FACTORY, TOYBOX |
 | Vampires' Melody | older | $3.99 | 5,559 97% | 167k | $665k (exactly $665,412) | AsicxArt |
 | Shattered Minds | · EA | $12.99 | 1,507 91% | 45k | $587k (exactly $587,278) | eXtasy Games |
 | Mojika - Truth Rears Its Ugly Head | $24.99 | 413 77% | 12k | $310k (exactly $309,626) | NITRO ORIGIN | |
 | 欺神弄鬼 | · EA | $9.99 | 802 91% | 24k | $240k (exactly $240,359) | 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle |
 | Ghost of Tokyo | $12.99 | 393 64% | 12k | $153k (exactly $153,152) | Shadow Veil Studios | |
 | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos | |
 | A Foreign World | $19.99 | 167 84% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $100,150) | HighbornTiger | |
 | Mythic Love: Iberian Legends | $12.99 | 251 92% | 7.5k | $98k (exactly $97,815) | Platonic Games | |
 | Raining City: Millions Recollections | $11.99 | 254 83% | 7.6k | $91k (exactly $91,364) | Orca Layout | |
 | SEXOPHOBIA 🔞 | $14.99 | 168 78% | 5.0k | $76k (exactly $75,550) | Lewd Star |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.