Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Dating Sim

Only 17 developers shipped a Dating Sim Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ledgerbound, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×805 the market median. Revenue is up 1580% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1580% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $7.4k → $2.7k → $29k → $23k → $22k → $85k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $14k (exactly $14,032)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,375)
Top 5% $506k (exactly $505,631)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 69
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1580% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,407 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $500k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Arrogant Kaiju Princess and The Detective Servant older $14.99 3,468 96% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,559,560) ARTcelerator, PantyParrot
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition older $24.99 621 84% 19k $466k (exactly $465,564) Love in Space
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
Ghost Marriage Matchmaking older $19.99 662 84% 20k $397k (exactly $397,001) 永恆艾莉絲工坊, 非魚工作室
Latex Dungeon older $9.99 969 82% 29k $290k (exactly $290,409) GODNASK, ZXC
Blades of Jianghu: Ballad of Wind and Dust older $18.99 472 83% 14k $269k (exactly $268,898) 永恆艾莉絲工坊
UndercoverAgent older $7.99 940 81% 28k $225k (exactly $225,318) AleCubicSoft
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Cradle of Nightmare : Flowers to you $6.99 705 92% 21k $148k (exactly $147,838) 红锈雨
九州:立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon
UltraGirl Alters $19.99 37 64% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) FutureInvention
Sex Arena: Passion of Aquilon 💋⚔️ $6.99 95 68% 2.9k $20k (exactly $19,922) Aquilon
Ambitious Road $17.99 26 88% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) 黒木道仁

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.