Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Strategy game?

Strategy + Dating Sim

Of 133 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 164 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1647 the market median. Revenue is up 265% on the market; 164 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 265% on the market, 164 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $2.2k → $38k → $27k → $12k → $2.4k → $31k (still earning) → $8.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $14k (exactly $14,029)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $78,055)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 496
Announced 164
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 265% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 145,375 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 164 games are announced against 73 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III older $39.99 14,436 50% 433k $17M (exactly $17,318,869) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
HuniePop older $9.99 23,989 96% 720k $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) HuniePot
Chinese Parents older $9.99 23,168 91% 695k $6.9M (exactly $6,943,450) 墨鱼玩游戏
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
Rebooted Fate $14.99 1,846 95% 55k $830k (exactly $830,146) Jilin miaomiao, 山与海工作室
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
SIFU Kidnapped! Adventure in the Women's Kingdom $9.99 2,537 95% 76k $760k (exactly $760,339) 次元边界

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.