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Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Psychological Horror
Of 118 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 180 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×22 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2557 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 180 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.2k (exactly $3,235) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,329) |
| Top 25% | $78k (exactly $77,810) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 118 |
| Released games | 510 |
| Announced | 180 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Psychological Horror
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 58,014 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 180 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
Undertale 2015 · $92M 
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017 · $26M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 2016 · $19M 
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Undertale | older | $9.99 | 307,601 96% | 9.2M | $92M (exactly $92,188,020) | tobyfox |
| | Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony | older | $39.99 | 21,978 82% | 659k | $26M (exactly $26,367,007) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair | older | $19.99 | 30,961 95% | 929k | $19M (exactly $18,567,312) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! | older | $14.99 | 30,148 97% | 904k | $14M (exactly $13,557,556) | Team Salvato |
 | CLANNAD | older | $44.99 | 9,908 98% | 297k | $13M (exactly $13,372,828) | VisualArts/Key |
 | CODE VEIN II | $69.99 | 5,193 66% | 156k | $11M (exactly $10,903,742) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. | |
 | 魔女的夜宴 | older | $34.99 | 9,664 98% | 290k | $10M (exactly $10,144,301) | YUZUSOFT |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Sweet Home | $7.99 | 9,910 94% | 297k | $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) | 开心茶房 | |
 | Matchmaking Inc. | $8.99 | 5,773 87% | 173k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) | Wave Games | |
 | Baby Steps | $19.99 | 2,355 90% | 71k | $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) | Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy | |
 | Cabernet | $19.99 | 2,025 94% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) | Party for Introverts | |
 | The NOexistenceN of you AND me | $1.99 | 20,139 93% | 604k | $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) | 0x0Real Studio | |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | Office Life | $19.99 | 1,725 88% | 52k | $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) | LeiYun Games | |
 | AI2U: With You 'Til The End | $14.99 | 2,073 87% | 62k | $932k (exactly $932,228) | AlterStaff Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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