Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Space

Of 26 developers who shipped a Space Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $107k → $22k → $17k → $32k → $45k → $33k → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,537)
Median $15k (exactly $14,861)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $55,763)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $258,941)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 85
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,697 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.6k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.6k. 4 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliya: Timelink older $2.99 8,587 97% 258k $770k (exactly $770,254) TDGame Studio
A Sky Full of Stars 仰望夜空的星辰 older $17.99 940 97% 28k $507k (exactly $507,318) MoeNovel
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition older $24.99 621 84% 19k $466k (exactly $465,564) Love in Space
Little-Known Galaxy older $19.99 679 88% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Carbon & Kay
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Wings of Seduction: Bust 'em out! older $12.99 904 93% 27k $352k (exactly $352,289) Ramen Cat Studio
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Heaven Will Be Mine older $14.99 709 92% 21k $319k (exactly $318,837) Pillow Fight, Worst Girls Games
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
PASSIONERS $9.99 285 62% 8.6k $85k (exactly $85,414) CryoDreams Interactive
Milfy Way: Space Orgasm 🪐🔞 $14.99 172 75% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀
Breach Protocol $14.99 149 69% 4.5k $67k (exactly $67,005) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Stellar Dream - Part 1 $14.99 129 87% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Winterlook Games
Lust Effect [18+] $14.99 124 66% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Dirty Adventures 🖤
LUST Company 👾 $9.99 155 65% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Taboo Tales 💘
SEXSTELLAR $9.99 151 67% 4.5k $45k (exactly $45,255) Carnality INC
CUMVERSE [18+] $9.99 128 70% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Octo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.