Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Modern

Of 113 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 155 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×771 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 155 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 155 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $7.2k → $3.1k → $8.9k → $9.2k → $15k → $6.5k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,469)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,264)
Top 5% $366k (exactly $366,297)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 405
Announced 155
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choices Matter, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 85,033 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 155 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
The Wife Next Door $16.99 1,951 89% 59k $994k (exactly $994,425) 雪山雞白郎, SnowGBL
Love and Sex: Second Base older $19.99 1,340 91% 40k $804k (exactly $803,598) Andrealphus Games
MILF's Plaza older $14.99 1,585 73% 48k $713k (exactly $712,774) Texic
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
Stardom 3 older $12.99 1,600 94% 48k $624k (exactly $623,520) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
月球坠落时 Moon Fall older $14.99 982 87% 29k $442k (exactly $441,605) Xihe Animation, JasminsSummer Project
Trap Shrine older $9.99 1,458 94% 44k $437k (exactly $436,963) No Strike
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Breaker of fatalism $10.99 613 88% 18k $202k (exactly $202,106) showplay entertainment
Enjoy Amoy&Sisters $4.99 855 96% 26k $128k (exactly $127,994) Choice Studio
Photo Studio Simulator $14.99 260 80% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) JesseMJ
这个CEO我当定了! $7.99 462 82% 14k $111k (exactly $110,741) 叁石肆两

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.