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Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy
Of 78 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×239 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 102 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.6k (exactly $6,625) |
| Top 25% | $21k (exactly $21,430) |
| Top 5% | $150k (exactly $150,150) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 78 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 102 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 10,289 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | CODE VEIN II | $69.99 | 5,193 66% | 156k | $11M (exactly $10,903,742) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. | |
| | Scarlet Hollow | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,833 97% | 145k | $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) | Black Tabby Games |
| | Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne | older | $59.99 | 1,042 87% | 31k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) | Chime Corporation |
| | Cabernet | $19.99 | 2,025 94% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) | Party for Introverts | |
| | Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls | older | $12.99 | 1,602 83% | 48k | $624k (exactly $624,299) | RLR Training Inc |
| | Ravager | · EA older | $19.99 | 909 93% | 27k | $545k (exactly $545,127) | 4MinuteWarning |
| | Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk | older | $29.99 | 600 84% | 18k | $540k (exactly $539,820) | IDEA FACTORY |
| | Demonheart | older | $19.99 | 714 89% | 21k | $428k (exactly $428,186) | Rolling Crown |
| | Burning Boundaries Part 1 | $14.99 | 482 86% | 14k | $217k (exactly $216,755) | T4bbo | |
| | The Seven Realms - Realm 1: Terran | older | $9.99 | 708 81% | 21k | $212k (exactly $212,188) | SeptCloud Games |
| | 女儿国的诅咒 The Curse of Womanland | $9.99 | 501 96% | 15k | $150k (exactly $150,150) | 符离游戏(FuliGames) | |
| | Cradle of Nightmare : Flowers to you | $6.99 | 705 92% | 21k | $148k (exactly $147,838) | 红锈雨 | |
| | 👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) | $10.99 | 445 80% | 13k | $147k (exactly $146,716) | 绝汪 | |
| | Sofia's Dark Fantasies — Season 1: Episodes 1 & 2 | $14.99 | 318 71% | 9.5k | $143k (exactly $143,005) | Greuceanu Heavy Industries | |
| | Mythic Love: Iberian Legends | $12.99 | 251 92% | 7.5k | $98k (exactly $97,815) | Platonic Games | |
| | Raining City: Millions Recollections | $11.99 | 254 83% | 7.6k | $91k (exactly $91,364) | Orca Layout | |
| | Demonheart: The Cursed Trial | $24.99 | 115 90% | 3.5k | $86k (exactly $86,216) | Rolling Crown |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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