Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy

Of 78 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×239 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 102 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 102 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $4.3k → $15k → $7.8k → $9.9k → $5.2k → $5.1k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,430)
Top 5% $150k (exactly $150,150)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 182
Announced 102
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 10,289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Scarlet Hollow · EA older $29.99 4,833 97% 145k $4.3M (exactly $4,348,250) Black Tabby Games
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne older $59.99 1,042 87% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) Chime Corporation
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls older $12.99 1,602 83% 48k $624k (exactly $624,299) RLR Training Inc
Ravager · EA older $19.99 909 93% 27k $545k (exactly $545,127) 4MinuteWarning
Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk older $29.99 600 84% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) IDEA FACTORY
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Burning Boundaries Part 1 $14.99 482 86% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) T4bbo
The Seven Realms - Realm 1: Terran older $9.99 708 81% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) SeptCloud Games
女儿国的诅咒 The Curse of Womanland $9.99 501 96% 15k $150k (exactly $150,150) 符离游戏(FuliGames)
Cradle of Nightmare : Flowers to you $6.99 705 92% 21k $148k (exactly $147,838) 红锈雨
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Sofia's Dark Fantasies — Season 1: Episodes 1 & 2 $14.99 318 71% 9.5k $143k (exactly $143,005) Greuceanu Heavy Industries
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
Raining City: Millions Recollections $11.99 254 83% 7.6k $91k (exactly $91,364) Orca Layout
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.