Do I ship it?

Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Martial Arts

Of 28 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $41M, ×65458 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 21 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $85k → $9.3k → $28k → $17k → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Top 25% $152k (exactly $151,662)
Top 5% $41M (exactly $41,107,927)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 55
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 86,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $41M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M Legend of Mortal 2024 · $20M Fate Seeker II 2021 · $7.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Fate Seeker older $21.09 11,930 90% 358k $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) JSL Entertainment
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami $19.99 1,334 82% 40k $800k (exactly $800,000) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami 2 $19.99 1,135 82% 34k $681k (exactly $680,660) RGG Studio
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.