Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Dating Sim?

Fishing + Dating Sim

Only 13 developers shipped a Fishing Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Island Notes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×31 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×725 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 30 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 31.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 30 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $881k → $80k → $87k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $8.1k (exactly $8,091)
Median $15k (exactly $14,781)
Top 25% $87k (exactly $87,370)
Top 5% $344k (exactly $344,495)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 38
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,008 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.1k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $87k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Farming SimPoor odds84 devs · median $15k · 170 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Potion Permit older $19.99 4,358 78% 131k $2.6M (exactly $2,613,493) MassHive Media
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Slow living with Princess older $19.99 580 87% 17k $348k (exactly $347,826) KADOKAWA, TSUKURITE.
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios
Summer Beach $24.99 181 66% 5.4k $136k (exactly $135,696) Sakura Cat
Shinehill $10.99 265 95% 8.0k $87k (exactly $87,370) Peach Bite
My Heaven's Dale $11.99 66 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) DreamingCat
Sky Harvest · EA $7.99 79 84% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Armored Cat
Ninano: Dream Ranch $16.99 29 65% 870 $15k (exactly $14,781) NABI
Slave Harem $9.99 44 61% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) artoonu
Monmusu Paradise ~Visitors~ $4.99 66 74% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) Siluman Soft
The Peak of Life $8.99 30 66% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) XY Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.