Do I ship it?

Games › Action › Action + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Action game?

Action + Dating Sim

Of 125 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.0k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3494 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 129 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 129 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 125
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $18k → $11k → $10k → $10k → $9.9k → $3.1k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 125
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Median $8.0k (exactly $8,020)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,005)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536)
Developers, 2 yr 125
Released games 495
Announced 129
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action, Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 247,237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $8.0k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter Wilds 2025 · $241M ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Senren＊Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III older $39.99 14,436 50% 433k $17M (exactly $17,318,869) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Neon White older $24.99 17,259 97% 518k $13M (exactly $12,939,072) Angel Matrix
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Baby Steps $19.99 2,355 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.