Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Time Travel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time-Travel Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Time Travel

Only 18 developers shipped a Time-Travel Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2251 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 16 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Time Travel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $28k → $55k → $959 → $2.5k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Time Travel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,518)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,105)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,145)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 42
Announced 16
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Time Travel
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Visual Novel, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,266 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Raging Loop older $29.99 10,568 95% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) KEMCO
ISLAND older $39.99 1,541 94% 46k $1.8M (exactly $1,848,738) Frontwing
STEINS;GATE: My Darling's Embrace older $29.99 1,802 95% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,621,259) MAGES. Inc.
STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT $59.99 594 88% 18k $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) MAGES. Inc.
Sexbot $14.99 723 86% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Llamamann Games
Kraken Academy!! older $9.99 737 91% 22k $221k (exactly $220,879) Happy Broccoli Games
Shanghai Summer older $12.99 393 89% 12k $153k (exactly $153,152) FUTU Studio
ChronoClock older $29.99 151 91% 4.5k $136k (exactly $135,855) Purple Software
Mech Academy $9.99 214 91% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) Space Samurai Studio
Time Space Rebuild $4.99 377 76% 11k $56k (exactly $56,437) INNOVATION DREAM
Train and Tame $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Tames Games
Love starts again $15.99 63 71% 1.9k $30k (exactly $30,221) WWWave Corporation
Novel Forger: Suicide Mr. Fury $7.99 34 100% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) KK Narratif
My Future Wife (InsanErotica) · EA $19.99 11 63% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) InsanErotica
钟塔 $3.99 51 88% 1.5k $6.1k (exactly $6,105) 可味玩KawayiPlay
EMIT:Embrace Beyond Time $8.99 15 93% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) LuLuLuna Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.