Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Sci-fi

Of 110 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 156 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×19 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1910 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 156 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 156 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $10k → $24k → $26k → $19k → $10k → $4.2k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $2.0k (exactly $2,030)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,985)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,011)
Top 5% $907k (exactly $907,025)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 321
Announced 156
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 20,495 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 5 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 156 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
STEINS;GATE older $29.99 25,289 97% 759k $23M (exactly $22,752,513) MAGES. Inc.
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III older $39.99 14,436 50% 433k $17M (exactly $17,318,869) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ATRI -My Dear Moments- older $20.99 21,411 98% 642k $13M (exactly $13,482,507) Frontwing, 枕
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
eden* older $19.99 4,098 98% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,457,571) minori
Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For- older $9.99 7,777 95% 233k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,767) Modern Visual Arts Laboratory, SEO INSE… (Modern Visual Arts Laboratory, SEO INSEOK)
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT $59.99 594 88% 18k $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) MAGES. Inc.
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
Just a To the Moon Series Beach Episode $7.99 3,784 98% 114k $907k (exactly $907,025) Freebird Games
Mahou Arms $39.99 618 73% 19k $741k (exactly $741,415) Dischan Media
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
Sexbot $14.99 723 86% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Llamamann Games
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.