Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Dating Sim?

Investigation + Dating Sim

Of 37 developers who shipped an Investigation Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×303 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 50 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $3.6k → $37k → $11k → $18k → $31k → $6.6k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,787)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,735)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 98
Announced 50
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,741 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  11. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds112 devs · median $5.5k · 230 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring older $13.99 6,310 95% 189k $2.6M (exactly $2,648,307) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Love, Money, Rock'n'Roll older $9.99 3,726 81% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,682) Soviet Games
The Genesis Order older $14.99 1,862 87% 56k $837k (exactly $837,341) NLT Media
Devil Girl older $9.99 668 85% 20k $200k (exactly $200,200) BananaKing, 台灣香蕉王
Mask of the Rose older $19.99 260 76% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Failbetter Games
Shanghai Summer older $12.99 393 89% 12k $153k (exactly $153,152) FUTU Studio
Taboo University Book One $14.99 332 79% 10k $149k (exactly $149,300) ViNovella Games
Going Rogue older $12.99 371 79% 11k $145k (exactly $144,579) Ker
HARDCODED $16.99 282 90% 8.5k $144k (exactly $143,735) Ghost Hug Games
Shale Hill Secrets $14.99 245 80% 7.4k $110k (exactly $110,176) Love-Joint
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown
Where it all Began - Season 1 · EA $9.99 286 84% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) OceanAVN
BUSTAFELLOWS season2 $49.99 53 86% 1.6k $79k (exactly $79,484) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
My proud girlfriend--Lina Chapter $5.99 210 91% 6.3k $38k (exactly $37,737) zzzgame
Corrupted Paradise $11.99 101 76% 3.0k $36k (exactly $36,330) SecretGame
Eclipse : Special Forces $13.99 74 90% 2.2k $31k (exactly $31,058) MoonSun
MARBLE MIRAGE $19.99 43 81% 1.3k $26k (exactly $25,787) Velvet Arcade

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.