Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Otome

Of 110 developers who shipped an Otome Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 192 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×66 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×1921 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 192 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 192 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $30k → $4.8k → $5.4k → $34k → $8.7k → $5.1k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,587)
Top 5% $229k (exactly $228,581)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 409
Announced 192
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim, Otome; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 11,969 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 192 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
Ken ga Kimi older $49.99 1,065 93% 32k $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) Rejet
私のリアルは充実しすぎている フルボイス版 older $9.99 5,322 96% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,595,003) TetraScope
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Nightshade/百花百狼 older $34.99 717 95% 22k $753k (exactly $752,635) Red Entertainment, LANTERN ROOMS
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Arcadia Fallen II $29.99 165 98% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Galdra Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.