Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Psychological

Of 57 developers who shipped a Psychological Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×1174 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 113 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 113 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $2.3k → $11k → $1.9k → $27k → $14k → $8.6k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,935)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,666)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $557,442)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 149
Announced 113
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 73,762 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Raging Loop older $29.99 10,568 95% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) KEMCO
YOU and ME and HER: A Love Story older $29.99 6,033 95% 181k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,890) Nitroplus
Class of '09: The Re-Up older $14.99 4,496 97% 135k $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) SBN3
The Fruit of Grisaia older $39.99 1,037 92% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,089) Frontwing
The NOexistenceN of you AND me $1.99 20,139 93% 604k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) 0x0Real Studio
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
他人世界末 On-looker older $8.99 2,733 93% 82k $737k (exactly $737,090) 8A studio
Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls older $12.99 1,602 83% 48k $624k (exactly $624,299) RLR Training Inc
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Mojika - Truth Rears Its Ugly Head $24.99 413 77% 12k $310k (exactly $309,626) NITRO ORIGIN
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH
I Hate My Waifu Streamer $9.99 891 92% 27k $267k (exactly $267,033) Nozori Games
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Stiff Neck $6.99 955 81% 29k $200k (exactly $200,264) 伤官制作组 Team Uranian
Shale Hill Secrets $14.99 245 80% 7.4k $110k (exactly $110,176) Love-Joint

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.