Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Medieval

Of 56 developers who shipped a Medieval Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×674 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 75 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $22k → $5.8k → $35k → $12k → $8.8k → $5.1k (still earning) → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,948)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,293)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 154
Announced 75
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 7 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Lakeburg Legacies older $27.58 1,302 71% 39k $1.1M (exactly $1,077,275) Ishtar Games
Princess Maker 2 Refine older $19.99 1,610 93% 48k $966k (exactly $965,517) CFK Co., Ltd.
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Ravager · EA older $19.99 909 93% 27k $545k (exactly $545,127) 4MinuteWarning
Spice&Wolf VR2 older $24.99 663 96% 20k $497k (exactly $497,051) SpicyTails
Knightly Passions older $11.99 1,331 90% 40k $479k (exactly $478,761) FEYADA
Jerez's Arena older $19.99 648 80% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) 永恆艾莉絲工坊, 樂磚Joy Brick
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
Fallen / Brand New World $29.99 356 94% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Parthia Studio LLC
Forbidden Fantasy $6.99 1,459 88% 44k $306k (exactly $305,952) OppaiMan Studios
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
Becoming a King $14.99 281 77% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Lustration Team, TopHouse Studio
Vikings: Sex and Blood $14.99 155 62% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) DreamBig Games
Holy Whore Emily $11.99 182 75% 5.5k $65k (exactly $65,465) Asami
Sex Wishes 🔮 $14.99 145 68% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) Dirty Adventures 🖤
LUST HAREM: 1001 Pleasures 💞 $14.99 143 71% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Dirty Adventures 🖤

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.