Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Mythology

Of 24 developers who shipped a Mythological Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2112 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $128k → $38k → $7.4k → $13k → $301k → $6.6k → $899 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,728)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 25% $147k (exactly $146,716)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 62
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Visual Novel
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 66,359 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.8k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.8k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
GINKA older $22.99 2,678 91% 80k $1.8M (exactly $1,847,017) Frontwing
Slaves of Rome older $24.99 1,924 73% 58k $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) Biggus Diccus Games
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
SIFU Kidnapped! Adventure in the Women's Kingdom $9.99 2,537 95% 76k $760k (exactly $760,339) 次元边界
Cooking Companions older $14.99 1,081 93% 32k $486k (exactly $486,126) Deer Dream Studios
Mirai's Midnight Stream $15.99 627 84% 19k $301k (exactly $300,772) Fox House
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Loot Line - Season 1 $12.99 270 74% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Candylight Studio
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
XXX Pussy House $6.99 66 71% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Dreamers Workshop
The Good People (Na Daoine Maithe) · EA $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Moirai Myths Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.